Thursday, September 29, 2016

Realist Left on the Debate between Hillary and Trump

In a great and thought-provoking new video here:

Some interesting points:
(1) will Gary Johnson take more votes from Clinton or Trump?

(2) I 100% agree that Trump’s performance crashed as the debate proceeded, and Trump’s best moments were in the first 30 minutes or so on the economy.

(3) there does seem to be evidence that the popular perception was that Clinton won the debate.

(4) but a very interesting point is this: are the polls skewed by the possibility that a significant number of voters lie and are too embarrassed to say that they will vote for Trump, as suggested here?
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  1. (1) Poll analysis suggests that Trump may have 2 points of support currently locked up in the two third party candidates. You can catch a glimpse on this if you run the stats on the post-convention bounce for each candidate.

    (4) More likely that there are a lot of undecideds who are thinking about taking the plunge with the unorthodox choice but can't quite justify it to themselves until polling day. This is precisely what we say in the Brexit vote and I suspect we may see a rerun in this election. If you run analysis you see that events often push undecideds temporarily into Trunp's camp but rarely do into Clinton's.

    1. Polls sometimes disagree whether or not the Gary Johnson voters are taking primarily from Hillary and Trump. I tend to take a slightly different perspective: Gary Johnson mostly takes away from Hillary among millennials, and mostly from Trump among those 35+. I think a lot of the Johnson vote are disgruntled Bernieorbusters. Some are "real Libertarians" (Johnson got 1% last time around) including people who have voted Libertarian in the past. There are also quite a bit of center-righters/moderate Libertarians parking their votes with Johnson, who have voted GOP in the past primarily, but in a 2-way race would vote Hillary but like having a somewhat legitimate Libertarian choice.

      I also suspect there's a lot of #NeverTrumpers here, and also a bunch of independents disgusted with both political parties that have parked their vote with Johnson.

      It's hard to really say, but at least before the debate, I would imagine Johnson taking about 50-50 from the candidates, but on election day it'll probably end up being more like 65-35 against Trump.

  2. Regarding 4, LK, I'm not sure if you put much stock into Fivethirtyeight's analysis, but they seem to think that while it's possible that Trump is witnessing a bit of a Bradley effect, it's just as likely that folk could be embarassed to name Clinton as their choice of preference as it is for Trump:

    They also note folk made similar proclamations about how David Duke had more support when running for governor than polls would let on, due to folk being embarassed to admit they supported him. It turned out that the opposite was true; the polls overestimated Duke's chances, in part because they vastly underestimated the amount of black voters who turned up on election day.

  3. On Gary:

    1. Gary Johnson's entire campaign has been an Aleppo moment.

    2. The fact that Johnson didn't know what Aleppo was, but was able to instantly give a policy prescription once he realized the topic was Syria, leaves one with the distinct impression that he knows nothing about the conflict and is just parroting a line he was told. Kind of a shame, since this is one foreign policy area where he and Trump are pursuing a smarter strategy than Hillary.

  4. Hey LK. I just want to share this article which compares the effects of massive immigration with those of speculative financial flows:

    Migration flows have started to play a role which is just as important as the financial flows one. The migrant flows we are seeing today are exceptionally large, and have the characteristic that – just like capital flows – they may reverse rapidly. You could call this the global labour flow accelerator. I am convinced that we are dealing here with something new, with a hitherto hardly recognized phenomenon – namely speculative labour flows, or if you prefer” Hot Labour “.

  5. I'm not exactly sure why the debates are even being taken seriously, when they have all the credibility of the WWE:

  6. Pertains to a discussion we've had here: is there vote fraud?

  7. Interesting, but Brother Nathanael pointed out something I haven't heard mentioned yet: Why were the hostile questions mainly aimed at Trump & not Clinton?:

    1. lol.. haven't you noticed the massive mainstream media hostility to Trump?